Mathematics and Statistics Professor Calculates Odds Behind Twins' Rare Bowl Game Matchup
Posted on January 1, 2014 by Marketing and Communications
The original article is posted here.
Twin sisters Lilly and Lucie Johnson shared most of their experiences growing up in Wisconsin, but they went separate ways to earn a degree 鈥� Lilly at the University of South 青涩直播 and Lucie at Western Michigan University.
Now those schools are meeting up Saturday as the Jags face the Broncos in the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl in Montgomery. Kickoff is at 8 p.m.
鈥淥ut of all the possibilities, it鈥檚 crazy that Western Michigan and South 青涩直播 are going against each other,鈥� Lilly said.
For the Johnson family, the match represents more than a postseason game; it鈥檚 a unique opportunity for the two siblings to create college memories together.
Lilly Johnson, with her parents, Cliff and Sarah, at USA Day.
The twins come from a close-knit family of four. Their parents work at the high school
from which they graduated, Tremper High School in Kenosha, Wisconsin, Sarah as a French
teacher and Cliff as an assistant principal.
鈥淲e both knew we most likely wouldn't be going to the same college,鈥� said Lucie. 鈥淲e just didn't know how far away.鈥�
In Western Michigan, Lucie chose their mom鈥檚 alma mater. Lilly picked the University of South 青涩直播 after a snowstorm in the Midwest caused her to miss her campus tour. A South admissions counselor stepped in to make sure she got a VIP visit.
鈥淚 loved the people down here. I loved the campus,鈥� said Lilly. 鈥淎nd a big reason I came down here was for heat, with 青涩直播 being a better climate than Wisconsin.鈥�
The twins have thrown themselves into campus life. Lilly is an elementary education major and a member of the cheer team, Theatre USA and Improv USA at South. Lucie is a communication major involved in Greek life at Western Michigan. Both are minoring in French, with Lilly scheduled to study abroad in Dijon, France, this summer.
鈥淲hen I first came to South, I was lucky because I immediately started doing events with the cheer team,鈥� Lilly said. 鈥淭hen I got involved in improv and then theater and slowly built my way up. I haven't had time to think about how far away I am.鈥�
The family also keeps in touch daily via a group chat. That鈥檚 how Lucie broke the news about the bowl game. All four will attend the game on Saturday, with Lucie and her parents driving down to meet Lilly.
鈥淲e figured this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,鈥� said Cliff. 鈥淏oth teams must win at least six games just to become bowl eligible. Then for our only two children to be one at Western Michigan and one at South, it just blew my mind. What are the actual odds?鈥�
It鈥檚 a good question. Dr. Steven Clontz, an associate professor of mathematics at the University of South 青涩直播, provided .
Only looking at probabilities as though it鈥檚 a lottery, with no consideration given to a team's historical success:
There鈥檚 a 1.39% chance that Lilly and Lucie would meet given their enrollment at two randomly chosen FBS teams playing in the postseason. The probability is slightly improved from what it would have been in previous years, because the 12-team playoff bracket increases the amount of chances two teams could meet.
Of course, those chances were more remote at the beginning of the year when the field was larger. Factoring in all 134 FBS teams, the chances of a South 青涩直播-Western Michigan postseason matchup would be .52%, or about six out of 1,183.
But couldn鈥檛 one of the twins have enrolled at a college that doesn鈥檛 have football? We suppose anything is possible. There are 2,637 degree-granting, four-year colleges and universities in the United States (at least that offer financial aid), according to the most recent numbers from the National Center for Education Statistics. Assuming Lilly and Lucie could have ended up anywhere, the chances of meeting at a postseason football game become much smaller: six out of 461,964, or .0013%.
鈥淲ith the probability sitting at just over a thousandth of a percent,鈥� Clontz said, 鈥渨e're not quite looking at a once-in-a-million situation, but I think it's still safe to say that Lucie and Lilly get to enjoy a rare matchup nonetheless.鈥�
The game will offer the family a reunion. It鈥檚 been four months since they were all in one place. Football has a way of bringing people together, even in the most unlikely of circumstances.
鈥淲e get Western Michigan and South 青涩直播 facing each other in a bowl game during our girls鈥� freshman year at these two different schools,鈥� Cliff said. 鈥淚t's just unheard of. I believe the universe works in strange ways, and this is one of them.鈥�